Views from Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise
Bitcoin has just hit a fresh all-time high, but according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, the rally might be only getting started. While media headlines focus on regulation, corporate buying, ETF inflows, and Ethereum’s comeback, Hougan argues that the market is missing four powerful catalysts that could drive an even steeper climb into 2026.
1. Governments Are Only Just Starting to Buy
ETFs and public companies have already absorbed more Bitcoin this year than the network has mined, helping push prices up over 27%. But the “third horse” of Bitcoin demand, governments, has barely begun to run. Early moves include the U.S. “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” Pakistan’s domestic reserve plans, and Abu Dhabi’s ETF investment. Hougan expects more countries to quietly follow suit, potentially making sovereign Bitcoin holdings a much bigger price driver in the years ahead.
2. Policy Shifts Could Supercharge the Rally
Bitcoin is reaching record levels despite interest rates sitting near their highest since 2009, an unusual setup for a non-yielding asset. The Trump administration’s push for a weaker dollar and more aggressive rate cuts, including the appointment of devaluation advocate Stephen Milan to the Fed, could mean six to eight cuts instead of three. A softer dollar and lower rates would be a powerful tailwind for Bitcoin prices.
3. Lower Volatility Is Luring Bigger Investors
Since spot ETFs launched in January 2024, Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped sharply, now resembling high-volatility tech stocks like Nvidia rather than its historically wild swings. This “new normal” is encouraging institutional investors to boost their allocations from the typical 1% to 5% or more. In 2025 alone, ETFs have seen nearly $50 billion in inflows, with momentum building even during the usually quiet summer.
4. ICO 2.0 Could Ignite a Wave of Capital
Initial coin offerings were largely discredited after the fraud-filled boom of 2018, but SEC Chairman Paul Atkins’ new “Cryptocurrency Initiative” aims to give them a regulated revival. Tailored disclosure rules and safe harbors could pave the way for a wave of new projects and innovation. A renewed ICO market could draw significant fresh capital into crypto.
Hougan’s takeaway:
Markets don’t move on known good news, they move on surprises. With these four underappreciated forces in play, the Bitcoin bull run could still have a lot of fuel left in the tank.
This article is a summarized repost based on reporting from PA News Lab and reflects the views of Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise.
For the full analysis and details, read the original piece here: https://www.panewslab.com/en/articles/0239df91-36f4-4bff-aff5-8830e2b841ca